Will they expose the truth or deepen the mystery?
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The circumstances surrounding John F. Kennedy’s assassination have been a point of contention from the beginning. For his widow, Jacqueline Kennedy, the idea that he had been killed by a lone-wolf “dirty little communist” was deeply distasteful. It was far more comforting to believe he was a tragic martyr for a noble cause.
Conspiracy theories soon emerged in a range of forms, all challenging the Warren Commission’s official finding that Lee Harvey Oswald was the sole assassin.
The most prominent theory suggested the CIA was behind it, with the motive being to thwart Kennedy’s alleged secret plan to disengage from Vietnam. Some believe his successor, Lyndon B. Johnson, was in on the plot. Even JFK’s nephew, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., subscribes to some version of CIA involvement.
Then there was the Mafia theory. After allegedly helping Kennedy win the 1960 election, the mob felt betrayed when his administration turned on them. The assassination was supposedly their revenge.
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Another theory pointed to Cuban exiles seeking retribution for Kennedy reneging on air support during the Bay of Pigs invasion in April 1961. A different version implicated Fidel and Raúl Castro, who were allegedly retaliating for the Kennedy administration’s attempt to kill Fidel.
Some speculated that the Soviets orchestrated the killing. Kennedy had humiliated them during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, and Oswald—a former defector to the Soviet Union—was seen as a plausible instrument for a KGB plot.
Johnson himself privately worried about this possibility and attempted to steer the Warren Commission away from it. If true, or if widely believed, he feared it could trigger a nuclear war “that can kill 40 million Americans in an hour.” Until his death, he remained uncertain about what really happened.
The controversy flared again in 1991 when film director Oliver Stone released JFK, promoting a version of the CIA conspiracy theory. While widely criticized as fictional, the film attracted a large following.
Public skepticism was fuelled further by the U.S. government’s refusal to release all the investigatory files. As decades passed, the notion that national security concerns were still relevant became increasingly dubious. Many suspected a coverup.
Now, thanks to Donald Trump’s executive order, the remaining 80,000 or so classified pages are being released. The question is: what, if anything, will they reveal?
For what it’s worth, my guess is that any revelations will expose embarrassment rather than nefarious plotting.
In September 1963, Oswald visited the Cuban embassy in Mexico City multiple times seeking a visa to travel to the island. During one visit, he allegedly threatened to kill Kennedy. Given the CIA’s involvement in anti-Castro activities at the time and Oswald’s history as a defector, it is difficult to believe the agency was unaware of his activities.
Yet, he was still allowed to roam freely in Dallas ahead of Kennedy’s fatal visit. A greater failure of intelligence is hard to imagine.
The JFK assassination files may also refocus attention on a CIA inspector general’s report from the 1960s. It was finally made public in 1998, following a Freedom of Information Act request. As the late investigative journalist Edward Jay Epstein noted, the report detailed what some call the “Parallel Plot.” On the very day Kennedy was shot, the CIA allegedly delivered a weapon to its Cuban contact—a ballpoint pen concealing a needle capable of delivering a lethal toxin.
The Warren Commission, however, never examined this coincidence. The three people who knew about it—CIA director Richard Helms, FBI director J. Edgar Hoover and Attorney General Robert Kennedy—chose not to share it.
One thing seems certain. Even if the 80,000 pages contain no redactions, as Trump has ordered, conspiracy theories will persist. The reasoning will be simple: the government has had more than 60 years to destroy inconvenient evidence.
Sometimes, believing in a conspiracy is its own reward.
Troy Media columnist Pat Murphy casts a history buff’s eye at the goings-on in our world. Never cynical – well, perhaps a little bit.
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