Albertans need the real facts on separation

Danielle Smith is asking Albertans to take a leap into the dark when it comes to Alberta independence

Now that Premier Danielle Smith plans to put a question related to Alberta independence to Albertans this fall, her government needs to prepare and release a full economic and fiscal cost-benefit analysis of the impacts of independence, including issues such as pensions, federal transfers, debt allocation, trade and investment impacts.

Previous estimates have suggested Alberta separation could cost the province roughly $130 billion over a decade, underscoring the need for rigorous independent analysis before any referendum.

Public discussion of Alberta independence has intensified amid growing frustration over federal energy, environmental and fiscal policies. But neither Alberta Treasury Board and Finance nor Executive Council, Intergovernmental and International Relations have done a concrete analysis of what independence would mean for Alberta’s economy, even as a risk-planning exercise, despite numerous Access to Information (ATI) requests I have filed over the past year. The most recent request to Executive Council, filed on May 4 of this year, revealed that no work has been prepared.

A government analysis would likely examine issues including division of the federal debt, CPP participation, equalization, trade access, federal transfers and currency options. An independent Alberta would also face substantial transition costs associated with replacing or duplicating federal institutions and services.

The Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), an advocacy group promoting Alberta sovereignty and independence, has released what it considers to be a fully costed plan for an independent Alberta. An analysis by the Alberta government would help clear up misconceptions and independently test the APP’s assumptions as Alberta heads into a referendum campaign this summer and fall.

If the necessary capacity to do this sort of analysis is not available in-house within Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and/or Executive Council, the Smith government should hire a highly respected independent forecasting firm, such as the Conference Board of Canada (now Signal 49 Research) or Stokes Economics, to perform this critical work.

Any referendum campaign would also create uncertainty for investors, businesses and financial markets, making credible analysis even more essential.

The Smith government should release a full fiscal and economic analysis of Alberta independence by Aug. 15, 2026, so Albertans can consider its findings during the fall referendum campaign.

The government’s role is to inform its citizens about the likely benefits, costs and consequences of serious policy choices. Shouldn’t the Smith government test the APP fiscal plan and show whether it adds up? Don’t Albertans, whether they support or oppose independence, deserve clear and objective information about issues such as pensions, taxation, debt obligations and trade impacts before they are asked to vote?

As Albertans continue to debate the merits of independence, one thing shouldn’t be up for debate: the Smith government has a duty to provide accurate and transparent analysis of Alberta independence. At the very least, Albertans deserve all the numbers before being asked to vote this fall on Alberta’s future.

Lennie Kaplan is an economic consultant and a former senior manager with over two decades of experience in the Fiscal and Economic Policy Division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance. He also served as the executive director of the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances, specializing in the development of policy options to reform federal-provincial fiscal arrangements and provincial financial structures.